Continuing our exploration of human populations with logistic wavelets, David Burg and Jesse Ausubel publish Jewish population trajectories between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea Open Access in the journal Israel Affairs, DOI: 10.1080/13537121.2023.2206247
ABSTRACT This article re-examines Jewish population in what is now Israel using historical estimates from Ottoman, Mandatory British and United Nations sources and recent data from the Israeli census bureau. A logistic model generates backward extrapolations and forward projections. The model quantifies three waves of Jewish immigration totalling about 3.5 million. Subtracting immigrant data from total population numbers gives the main empirical trajectory for non- immigrant native-born population. A multi-logistic model combining migrant and native populations projects a Jewish population of about 10 million in 2050, a level low in the range of estimates made by others.
Some other relevant papers
IK Wernick. Jews in Time and Space (PDF). International Journal of Anthropology 31 (1-2): 93–109, 2016
PS Meyer, Ausubel JH. Carrying Capacity: A Model with Logistically Varying Limits (PDF). Technological Forecasting and Social Change 61 (3): 209–214, 1999
C Marchetti, PS Meyer, JH Ausubel. Human Population Dynamics Revisited with the Logistic Model: How Much Can Be Modeled and Predicted? Pp. 1–30 in Technological Forecasting and Social Change vol. 53, 1996