Conclusion

Assessing the possible impact of new technologies

The Logistic Substitution Model

##

Implementation in Loglet Lab

The Loglet Lab software condenses the logistic substitution model into
two steps. First, it Fisher-Pry transforms all of the data to assist in the
identification of the growth (and decline) phases. Second, it asks
you to give either a time window for the growth (or decline) phase or
a set of parameters for each technology. Using this input, the
logistic substitution engine fits a curve to the growth (or decline)
phase of each technology, determines the saturation point based on
the criterion in equation (9), and plots the
substitution curves.
Loglet Lab can accommodate an arbitrary amount of data sets, so users can
easily add one or more hypothetical competitors and envision several
different scenarios for the emerging markets.

*Perrin S Meyer*

*1998-07-14*