<< back to list of all areas of research
Population
Humans now near 7 billion. Annual growth peaked near 2% in 1970 and has dropped below 1.4%. More than 90% of growth is in the so-called Developing Countries. In fact, the populations of one set of countries are exploding while others are imploding. Combinations of fertility rates near or more than the 2.1 children per woman that replaces present population plus increases in length of life make explosions in countries such as India and Nigeria. Fertility far below replacement and populations already near the present limit of longevity start slow implosions in countries such as Japan and Italy. Most demographers expect world population to reach 10 billion by 2100, a compound growth rate from today of about 0.5%/yr. However, because no one knows how many children parents will choose in the future, this number may be a way station upward, a plateau, or a peak before a fall. We study the explosions and implosions of populations.
Research in this area includes population projections.
Publications about Population
0047 . Lightening the tread of population on the land: American examples (PDF). Population and Development Review 22(3): 531-545, 1996 Lightening the tread of population on the land: American examples, population, land use, forestry, agriculture
0039 . Working less and living longer: Long-term trends in working time and time budgets. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 50: 113-131, 1995 Working less and living longer: Long-term trends in working time and time budgets, Labor, longevity, population
0006 . A note on populations 50 years hence (PDF) [external link]. IIASA Working Paper WP-81-120: 12, 1981 A note on populations 50 years hence, population, logistic curve
